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Sovereign Sustainability: Grey Swan Lake

October 25th, 2022

 

COVID-19’s economic impact showed how sustainability risks can materialise quickly, with grave consequences and without a warning. We are seeing more and more examples how they take centre stage:

Geopolitical risks are no longer about “quarrel[s] in a far away country, between people of whom we know nothing[2].” Russia’s aggression threatens not only the security and economic prosperity of democratic Europe, but also food and energy prices worldwide. While the impact of biodiversity loss is one of the top three risks over the next 10 years[3].

Find out how sovereign investors can avoid being at the mercy of grey swans[1]:

  • Why investors see so many grey swans and where do they come from?
  • What sustainability indicators can point to risks before they materialise?
  • Are some of them more important than others?
  • How can sovereign sustainability models evaluate decisions taken by governments?

[1] A grey swan is an event which is known and possible to happen, but assumed not very likely to happen. The term derives from black swan theory, which describes an event which is unlikely but unknown.

[2] http://www.historyguide.org/europe/munich.html

[3] According to the World Economic Forum’s 2022 Global Risks Report https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Global_Risks_Report_2022.pdf

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